Your Personal Early Warning System for Market Downturns
Canary is your personal early warning system for market downturns and corrections.
It computes a market health score in real-time using trend, drawdown, volatility, and credit stress signals to warn you as conditions deteriorate.
Built for self-directed investors with day jobs and busy lives who don't want to miss the indicators of market turbulence.
Canary notifications and market health score during "Liberation Day" tariff shock
What Canary Measures
You shouldn't need to watch the market all day to know when something's wrong. Each indicator tracks a distinct dimension of market stress so you get the full picture without the noise.
Trend
Tracks SPY price relative to its 200-day simple moving average. When price drops below the 200 SMA, the long-term uptrend is weakening. Also monitors the 50/200-day moving average crossover (death cross / golden cross) as a secondary signal.
Drawdown
Measures the current percentage decline from SPY's 52-week high. A drawdown exceeding -5% flags a potential correction; beyond -10% enters bear market territory. This indicator catches broad equity weakness regardless of moving average position.
Volatility
Tracks the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which measures implied volatility of S&P 500 options. VIX above 20 indicates elevated fear; above 30 signals panic. Also detects sudden VIX spikes (day-over-day change) that precede sharp sell-offs.
Credit Stress
Monitors the ratio between high-yield corporate bonds (HYG) and investment-grade bonds (LQD). When this ratio declines, it means credit markets are pricing in higher default risk - a leading indicator that often precedes equity sell-offs by days or weeks.
How It Works
Each indicator contributes to a composite Market Stress score that determines the overall severity level.
Market Stress Score
A composite score from 0 (fully healthy) to 100 (maximum stress). Each indicator is weighted and scored independently, then combined into a single number.
Severity Levels
The score maps to five severity levels: Normal, Adjusting, Reacting, Severe, and Extreme. As more indicators align, the severity rises — but how you respond is your call. The score tells you what's happening; the decision is yours.
Data Frequency
Price data is updated every 15 minutes during market hours (9:30 AM - 4 PM ET, weekdays). Symbols tracked: SPY, VIX, HYG, LQD.
Backtest Against History
The Time Machine recalculates all four indicators for any date back to 2010 using historical price data. Test how the composite score behaved during past corrections and bear markets.
- 89 COVID crash bottom (Mar 23, 2020) - all four indicators Severe
- 65 2022 bear market entry (Jan 2022) - early warning before -25% decline
- 58 2018 Q4 selloff (Dec 2018) - credit and volatility triggered first
See the Current Market Health
Open the dashboard, explore historical data, and set up notifications.
View Market HealthDriving Conditions
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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance does not indicate future results.
SPY Price
Time Machine
Driving Conditions
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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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